UK wage growth slows but figures still among highest on record
In its analysis of the data ING Group said the UK is on the right path to see interest rates fall from next summer.
Regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew by 7.7% in July to September, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.
This is down slightly on the previous periods, but is still among the highest annual growth rates since comparable records began in 2001.
UK enters 'new phase of suspended animation' after Bank of England holds rates
Employees' average total pay, including bonuses, grew 7.9% but this growth rate is affected by the Civil Service one-off payments made in July and August 2023.
Adjusted for CPI inflation and including owner occupier's housing costs, annual growth for total pay rose on the year by 1.4%, while regular pay rose by 1.3%.
Fewer job opportunities is one factor that could be dampening wage growth.
Between August and October 2023, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 58,000 on the quarter to 957,000.
Vacancies fell on the quarter for the 16th consecutive period, with vacancies falling in 16 of the 18 industry sectors.
However, the estimate of payrolled employees for October 2023 increased by 33,000 on the revised September 2023 figure, to 30.2 million, though this is also likely to be revised next month.
The ONS has recently begun publishing ‘alternative estimates' for some labour force figures, which it believes may be more accurate.
According to these estimates for July to September 2023, the UK employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points on the quarter to 75.7%.
During the same period the UK unemployment rate was largely unchanged on the quarter at 4.2%, and the UK economic inactivity rate was largely unchanged at 20.9%.
Bank of England rate setter
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