Unemployment rise spurs fears of slowdown, yet recession signals have been wrong — so far

abcnews.go.com:

A surprising rise in the unemployment rate last month has rattled financial markets and set off new worries about the threat of a recession — but it could also prove to be a false alarm

WASHINGTON — A surprising rise in the U.S. unemployment rate last month has rattled financial markets and set off new worries about the threat of a recession — but it could also prove to be a false alarm.

Friday’s jobs report, which also showed hiring slowed last month, coincides with other signs the economy is cooling amid high prices and elevated interest rates. A survey of manufacturing firms showed activity weakened noticeably in July. Hurricane Beryl, however, hit Texas during the same week the government compiles its job data and could have held back job gains.

The U.S. economy used to flash reliable signals when it was in or near a recession. But those red lights have gone haywire since the COVID-19 pandemic struck and upended normal business activity. Over the past two or three years, they’ve signaled downturns that never arrived as the economy just kept rolling along.

Worries about a recession are also quickly politicized, even more so as the presidential election intensifies. Former President Donald Trump's campaign on Friday said the jobs report is “more evidence that the Biden-Harris economy is failing Americans.”

For his part, President Joe Biden said that since he and Vice President Kamala Harris took office, the economy has added nearly 16 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to half-century lows. Some of those job gains reflect a bounce-back from the pandemic, but the U.S. now has 6.4 million more jobs than it did before COVID-19.

Even so, Friday’s report from the U.S. Labor Department is raising recession