



Union budget: Why the real impact on India’s economy lies beyond the headlines
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The date of 1 February for the announcement of the Union budget precedes by a month the release of the advance estimate of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) based on three quarters, which this year will mark the start of a new GDP series with 2022-23 as its base year, replacing the old series based on 2011-12. The new series will change the sectoral weights, and with that, the estimates of aggregate real growth for the first two quarters.
Nominal GDP may not be affected much with the shift to the new series. The tentative (old series) advance estimate for the current year issued on 7 January is ₹357.14 trillion. The budgeted nominal GDP for 2026-27 is placed at ₹393 trillion, assuming 10% growth.
We have to use these for now. There are two other changes. The 16th Finance Commission report covering the 2026-31 period was tabled only with the budget for 2026-27, but is factored into the budget figures.
The aggregate share of states in Union tax revenues remains at 41%. The second change in the offing is the 8th Pay Commission report to be released in April 2027, but with retrospective effect from 1 January 2026. Advance fiscal provisioning for retrospective application is never done.
Arrears for the current and next budget year will be payable in 2027-28, causing an arrear bump-up in revenue expenditure that year on top of the salary bill discontinuity. My principal pitch is that what matters is not the policy headlines so much as what underlies the headlines. We are in a new abusive world order, where the powerless are punished.
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