US nuclear expansion unlikely to deter China: Study
Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has revealed that increasing US nuclear capabilities would not deter China from employing atomic weapons in a conflict over Taiwan, Taipei Times reported.
The findings, published in a report on Friday, challenge current calls among policy experts to expand and modernise the US nuclear arsenal in response to China's growing military strength.
The table top exercise, described as the first large-scale unclassified simulation of a potential nuclear war over Taiwan, explored scenarios where nuclear weapons might be used. According to the report, the US's nuclear capabilities, beyond ongoing modernisation efforts, had minimal impact on Beijing's willingness to deploy nuclear arms. Instead, the exercise highlighted the conditions under which either side might face pressure to resort to nuclear strikes, rather than the likelihood of such weapons being used.
The CSIS study pointed to a recurring pattern where Chinese forces faced the greatest pressure to use nuclear weapons when defeat appeared imminent. «Building on US concerns, this suggests that China could be moving away from its no-first-use policy during critical conflicts,» the report noted.
Researchers concluded that while favourable outcomes were possible in some scenarios, «complete victory was unachievable» when nuclear weapons were involved, reported Taipei Times.
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