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livemint.com / 5 months ago
Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Santa Claus rally ahead?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Ticker is a weekly newsletter by Vijay L Bhambwani. Subscribe to Mint's newsletters to get them directly in your email inbox. Dear reader, Last week, I wrote that bulls appeared to have an upper hand, read here.
The markets barely managed to stay above water after the participants saw the rupee weaken further against the US dollar. This raised concerns about imported inflation in the coming months. The firming up of oil and gas prices also added to the worries.
It was only after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut interest rates by 0.25% that markets recovered. As I have been writing for the last few weeks, follow-up buying is of extreme importance as bulls must absorb all selling that emerges at higher levels to express the intent of propelling markets higher. Historically, December tends to be bullish (at least in the second half) as institutional buying emerges to boost NAVs (net asset values).
This determines the performance bonus payable to foreign institutional investors (FII) fund managers. This bullishness is called a ‘Santa Claus’ rally in the markets. Only aggressive buying can make a Santa Claus rally possible this year.
Banks remained in the limelight along expected lines as RBI eased interest rates. Being the heaviest-weighted sector in the Nifty, banking must participate in the upthrust to lend credibility and sustainability to any upmove. Public sector undertakings (PSUs) also attracted the attention of traders.
That may continue this week as well. A weak rupee is likely to see bullishness in bullion or at least smaller declines in prices, even if overseas prices fall. This is due to the currency factor.
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