Wall St Week Ahead: Last Fed hike tends to aid stocks, but some have doubts this time
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) — The end of the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle has generally been a good time to own U.S. stocks, but an uncertain economic outlook and stretched valuations could dampen upside this time around.
After raising borrowing costs by 525 basis points since March 2022, the U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting next week. Many investors believe that policymakers are unlikely to raise rates any further, bringing an end to the central bank's most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in decades.
If they are right, stocks could be poised for more gains. After the Fed's past six periods of credit tightening, the S&P 500 rose an average of 13% from the final rate hike to the first cut in the following cycle, an analysis by financial research firm CFRA showed.
Investors with a more bearish view, however, say it is only a matter of time before higher rates tighten economic conditions and bring a downturn. The S&P 500 is already up over 16% this year, aided in part by a U.S. economy that has stayed resilient in the face of higher interest rates.
«The market will probably cheer it a bit if it is the end of the Fed rate hike cycle,» said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern (NASDAQ:NWE) Mutual Wealth Management Company.
However, «I don't think the economy is going to stay out of a recession and that is going to be what ultimately decides the direction of stocks,» said Schutte, whose firm favors fixed income over equities.
Though most investors believe a recession is unlikely in 2023, a slowdown next year remains a possibility for some market participants. One worrying recession signal has been the inverted Treasury
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