Who is in charge of Europe?
eastward enlargement, once dormant policy areas, are now priorities—giving a new voice to Ukraine’s neighbours in central Europe. The rise of China, and the prospect of resurgent Trumpism in America, has caused the EU to rethink its economic arrangements—often along statist French lines. Climate imperatives have reinforced the value of taking action at collective level—an approach favoured by the EU’s quasi-federal institutions in Brussels.
And from Finland to France, populists on the hard right are gaining influence ahead of European Parliament elections in June. Not so long ago Angela Merkel was the continent’s undoubted leader. Her successor as German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has not taken on her mantle.
Many looked to Emmanuel Macron to seize it, not least the French president himself. But he faces an increasingly fraught political situation at home, which on January 8th resulted in his firing his prime minister in the hope of a reboot. He cannot run for re-election in 2027, and he exudes a self-confident manner that often grates among his fellow EU leaders.
Germany and France carry unmatched authority when aligned. But they seldom are. With no clear leadership, who matters these days depends on what is at stake.
Take defence and security, issues at the front of everyone’s minds given the situation in Ukraine (and more recently, the Middle East). After Russia’s invasion in February 2022, few looked to Germany for direction: it had let itself become hooked on Russian gas, and its armed forces were so unfit for purpose that Mr Scholz declared the need for a Zeitenwende, a change in the spirit of the times. In contrast, countries in central Europe, led by Poland and the three Baltic states, felt vindicated after years
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