Why Elon Musk’s robotaxi dreams are premature

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Elon Musk is betting that robot cars will propel Tesla into a lucrative new era. But he’s going about it all wrong.

Musk’s plans center on what he has called end-to-end artificial intelligence. The plan is to deluge Tesla’s AI systems with video footage from existing Teslas, in the expectation that algorithms running on huge supercomputers will learn how to drive safely. He hopes this will make it possible for Tesla to deliver fully self-driving cars faster and more cheaply than his competitors.

Existing Tesla owners would get access next year, and new specially designed robotaxis would be ready in 2026. The breakthrough AI of Musk’s dreams contrasts starkly with the approach of other companies pursuing autonomous vehicles. Waymo is the industry leader, already operates commercial robotaxis and just announced a $5.6 billion round of financing.

Waymo, which is owned by Google-parent company Alphabet, also uses lots of AI, but its approach is to break down the problem of self driving into more distinct tasks with more input from human engineers. Waymo is using data from more sensors, including lasers and radar, which gives the company’s cars a much richer view of the world. In the simplest possible terms, Musk’s vision for Tesla is about an AI system that learns by watching people drive.

Waymo and others are teaching their vehicles by correcting them as they do the driving themselves. Musk’s bet hinges on the current state of AI technology reaching a level of sophistication that it hasn’t yet achieved and may not for some time, AI developers say. One of Musk’s defining characteristics has been an ability to start with a goal in mind, and work backward to the solution required.