Why exit poll results should be read with a disclaimer and pinch of salt
Amid mixed estimates in almost all the states, the multiplicity of predictions and wider ranges have further muddied the waters. A majority of agencies have favoured a BJP triumph in Rajasthan, while Madhya Pradesh remains evenly split between BJP and Congress victories. Chhattisgarh and Telangana have been forecast to go towards Congress.
Meanwhile, in a first, Mizoram may experience a split verdict.
Adding to the confusion, are the wide numerical ranges predicted by some agencies. For example, Axis My India has given a range of 80–100 for the BJP in Rajasthan and C-Voter's 113–137 for Congress in Madhya Pradesh. These ranges, representing 10 percent of the house strength, highlight the difficulty in converting vote share to seat share in the Indian context.
Considering all this, here's why the exit poll predictions may go wrong.
Accuracy: Exit polls face several challenges that can impact their accuracy. One fundamental premise is the assumption that voters truthfully disclose their preferences during exit poll interviews.
