Why experts warn caution on gold, silver after stellar gains

After a two-year run of stellar gains, US traders are signalling far more modest returns for gold and silver in 2026, possibly driven by lower central bank purchases, a stronger dollar, and moderating safe-haven demand, according to experts.Analysts and financial planners are warning domestic investors to brace for bouts of volatility next year, with corrections in silver likely to be sharper, even though expectations could shift with changes in global macro conditions—such as interest rate moves or rising economic uncertainty.Trader bets on Comex, the world's most diverse derivatives marketplace, show they expect the most liquid gold futures contractto rise 3.4% and silver 3% by December 2026 from Wednesday’s (24 December’s) closing of $4,503 and $71.68 per troy ounce (31.10 gm), respectively, per Bloomberg data.In 2025, Comex generic gold and silver futures rose 67.8% and 127%, respectively, from 1 January to 24 December, the data showed.Indian gold and silver prices tend to mirror international prices as most domestic demand for both metals is met through imports.Even as the Nifty 50 gave 12% returns in the current fiscal year (FY26) through 19 December, gold ETF (exchange-traded funds) prices surged 45% to ₹11,400 per gm while silver doubled to ₹200 per gm in the same period, based on the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi’s) formula for ETFs using global benchmark London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) prices, excluding GST.In the previous fiscal, gold and silver ETFs gave 35% returns, while the Nifty returned just 5%.Sensing the warning signs, analysts and financial planners have called for caution, especially as Indian investors continue to diversify portfolios through gold and silver ETFs.Amol