Why the Gulf’s most powerful countries are at odds

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The language of diplomats is polite. That is especially true for those who speak Arabic, a tongue inclined towards courtesies and honorifics.

In December the Saudi foreign ministry issued a five-paragraph statement that used the term shaqiqa (“brotherly") four times in reference to the United Arab Emirates (uae). The fraternal tone was rather at odds with the subject matter: the kingdom had just bombed an Emirati weapons shipment in Yemen and was accusing the uae of threatening its national security. Almost two months later, no one is bothering with such niceties.

The Gulf’s biggest powers are mired in a worsening spat. Top officials barely speak. State-backed propagandists have been unleashed to attack each other.

The feud has reshaped the war in Yemen and complicated cross-border business. Diplomats and executives are nervous about what comes next. Some fear an echo of the Qatar crisis in 2017, when a group of Gulf countries (including Saudi Arabia and the uae) imposed an embargo on the tiny emirate over its support for Islamists.

Things are unlikely to deteriorate that far—but even a lesser quarrel may have far-reaching consequences. Saudi Arabia and the uae have been close allies for decades. Both are leading members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (gcc), a club of petro-monarchies, and of the opec cartel.

They fought together for years in Yemen against the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia that seized much of the country in 2014. The uae is Saudi Arabia’s fifth-largest export market for goods while Saudi Arabia ranks ninth for the uae; bilateral trade is worth $31bn a year. Flights between Dubai and Riyadh make up the world’s seventh-busiest international route.