Will Bangladesh’s elections produce a ‘basket case’?

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Henry Kissinger famously called Bangladesh a “basket case." As the nation goes to the polls Thursday—the first election since then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country in 2024 for India amid student protests—a question mark hangs over its future. Will Bangladesh become a basket case again? The country’s fate matters beyond its borders.

With a population of 175 million, Bangladesh is the fourth-largest Muslim-majority nation, behind Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria. A radicalized Bangladesh would be a setback for moderate Islam worldwide. In recent decades, the country has emerged as a bright spot in global development.

It has dramatically reduced extreme poverty and become the world’s second-largest garment exporter, behind China. Instability in Bangladesh would also affect the region’s largest economy, India, which has battled both Bangladesh-based terrorist groups and insurgents in India’s sensitive northeastern states. The country’s recent political history has been rocky.

In August 2024, protesters ended Ms. Hasina’s 15-year tenure as prime minister. Rising per capita income and human-development indicators on her watch prompted talk of the “Bangladesh miracle": A once dirt-poor land racked by natural disasters joining the ranks of middle-income countries through grit and tenacity.

But Ms. Hasina was also a classic despot. During her time in office, corruption mushroomed, civil liberties shrank, and the opposition withered under sustained pressure from the government and the then-ruling Awami League party.