Xi Jinping has much to worry about in 2025

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. SOON AFTER he took power in 2012, Xi Jinping urged caution about China’s prospects. “The further our cause advances," he told fellow leaders, “the more new situations and problems will arise, the more risks and challenges we will face and the more unforeseen events we will encounter." As China’s economy flounders and social tensions increase—and with Donald Trump about to enter the White House—the coming year will be full of the kind of difficulties Mr Xi feared.

The possibility of Trump-induced tumult in the relationship between the world’s two strongest powers is a big and immediate worry. Decisions made by America’s next president and his mostly China-hawkish team will affect matters that Mr Xi regards as critically linked to the Communist Party’s grip on power. First is the economy.

Mr Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China, on top of a rise of 10% if China fails to curb exports of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans a year. Some analysts say these increases could knock more than two percentage points off China’s economic growth. There is much uncertainty about how fast the tariffs will be raised and whether Mr Trump is really determined to push them so high.

But if imposed as advertised, they could deal a hefty blow to China at a time when the country is struggling to revive the badly battered confidence of households and businesses amid a property-market slump and a scarcity of jobs. Mr Xi would have no easy remedies. He may respond by beefing up the stimulus measures that he began unveiling in September, but the caution that has settled in among consumers and investors suggests that he may struggle to achieve the