‘A rate cut, higher-than-average inflation to push up gold prices’

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Fed to cut rates sooner than it currently states. A rate cut combined with higher-than-average inflation will result in a structural up move in gold prices, said Chirag Mehta and Ghazal Jain of Quantum Mutual Fund. Gold started July on a subdued note, trading near $1900 per ounce levels with the backdrop of the Fed’s hawkish hold in June. Prices gradually moved up during the month as investors stuck to bets of one final interest rate hike in July. The probability that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50% in July was above 90% for most of the month, according to Interest Rate Futures. International gold prices ended the month around 2.7% higher. Domestic prices moved up by around 2.9%. However, there was some volatility along the way. The minutes from the Fed’s June 13-14 meeting revealed that a majority of Federal Reserve officials saw the need for further interest rate hikes in 2023, given the above-target inflation and labour market resilience. Next, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published the private sector jobs data, which showed 209,000 jobs were added in June, below the market expectation of 225,000. May's increase of 339,000 also got revised lower to 306,000. The weaker-than-expected rise in private sector jobs was positive, but the unemployment rate edged lower to 3.6% from 3.7% and the annual wage inflation stood unchanged at 4.4%, compared to analysts' estimates of 4.2%, pointing to still tight labor market conditions. These events sharply pushed 10-year Treasury yields above the 4% threshold and weighed on gold prices, which traded in the early-$1900s.

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