Afghans are suffering. Don’t expect any tears from the Taliban
dire need of food, a fifth of them on the edge of famine. It is to ignore a looming migration crisis as Afghans try to leave for anywhere offering hope of a job. It is to ignore the ravages of climate change, which is worsening the country’s periodic droughts.
It is to ignore the toll of natural disasters. In the past 12 months Afghanistan has been hit by an earthquake that killed nearly 1,500 people and a series of flash floods that have killed hundreds more. And to ignore Afghanistan is to ignore international security, too.
Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a terrorist outfit based in the country’s west, is a foe of the Taliban, of Afghanistan’s neighbours and of the West. ISKP has carried out multiple attacks in Afghanistan and Iran; it claimed responsibility for a horrific assault on a concert hall in Moscow in March; it has its eyes on Central Asia, Pakistan and India. There are murmurings of stop-start co-operation on counterterrorism between American and Afghan governments, though neither side will admit it.
“The emotional fact is that it is difficult to stomach the idea of working with the Taliban," says Mr Smith. Afghanistan’s neighbours have taken a pragmatic approach. China is exploring economic opportunities, particularly in the country’s mineral wealth.
Iran wants to keep America out, suppress ISKP and discuss water-sharing. Pakistan’s main interest is in defanging Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a vicious jihadist group that finds a haven in Afghanistan. The one point of consensus among neighbours, regional powers and the West is that there is no appetite for regime change, nor for renewed civil war.
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