After a year of exuberance, markets bid adieu to FY24
₹2.06 trillion into the Indian markets, closely followed by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) with ₹2.04 trillion. Said Gaurang Shah, senior vice-president, Geojit Financial Services, “A short squeeze, NAV game (mutual funds rebalancing portfolios), truncated fiscal year-end week and the break of technical resistance at 22,200 drove Thursday's market rally". He expects the Nifty to trade volatile in a range of 21750-22526.60, until the results of the general election are announced.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley raised its India growth forecast for FY25 to 6.8%, highlighting India’s strength and stability as hallmarks of the current financial cycle. Vetri Subramaniam, chief investment officer, UTI AMC, told Mint in a recent interview, “...in my experience of three decades, as far as market falls and rallies are concerned, you should expect one fall of 10% for Nifty every 12-18 months, and one fall of 20% in two-three years. This is the historical pattern.
Once every eight to ten years, it falls 30-50%". There are other notes of caution too — analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities said, “FY24’s stars—SMIDs (smallcaps and midcaps), industrials and PSUs—are likely to face earnings/demand headwinds". While Thursday's fluctuations could be primarily driven by fund managers rebalancing portfolios and traders closing out short positions, attention will soon shift to March quarter earnings, with a keen eye on input costs, said Souvik Saha, investment strategist at DSP Mutual Fund.
Read more on livemint.com
