After heavy showers in July, IMD predicts below normal rainfall in August
India is expected to see below normal rainfall in August after witnessing excess showers in July, and normal precipitation in the second half of the June-September monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. Below normal rainfall raises concerns over yield of kharif crops, especially pulses. Lower yields and production may affect overall agriculture growth and rural demand recovery, and cause inflation.
Long period average (LPA) of rainfall across the country in August is predicted to be 254.9 mm, which is less than 94% of LPA. In August and September, 422.8 mm precipitation is expected, which is 94% to 106% of LPA based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020. East-central India, parts of the east & northeast region and most subdivisions along the Himalayas are seen recording normal to above normal rainfall, whereas below normal is forecast over most parts of the Peninsular region, western parts of northwest and central India.
If lower rainfall forecast by IMD materializes for August and rainfall remains on the lower side even in September, it may hit productivity of key kharif crops that require adequate moisture in this period. Lower yields and production could have an impact on overall agriculture growth, rural demand recovery and inflation, economists say. Indian farms rely heavily on monsoon rainfall, with 56% of the net cultivated area accounting for 44% of food production being rain-fed.
Normal rainfall leads to robust crop production, helping keep a lid on food prices, especially vegetables. “Given late arrival but wholesome rain in July, most of the kharif area is covered. Concern would be restricted to pulses, which are grown in peninsular India, where shortfall in August can be impacted,"
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