All hunky-dory for Kamala Harris? No, more polls show U.S. presidential candidates separated by the thinnest of margins
Donald Trump in the national poll average by nearly three full percentage points, 48.9% to 46%, according to data released by prognosticator Nate Silver on Tuesday.
Silver's electoral college forecast indicates that, despite Harris's three-point national lead, there is nearly a 25% chance that Harris will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college vote.
Former President Trump has a 56.2% chance of winning the electoral college as of Tuesday, according to Silver's prediction, while Harris has a 43.5% chance. Silver's projections differ from other election forecasts, particularly those from Silver's former company FiveThirtyEight, which as of Tuesday gave Harris a 61% chance of winning the Electoral College, a nearly 18-point difference between the two forecasters.
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In Pennsylvania, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University survey released on Monday had Harris leading Trump by three points, 49% to 46%. According to a statewide poll of 500 potential Pennsylvania voters with a 4.4 percentage point margin of error, the state is still unpredictable despite Harris's lead. The survey showed that Pennsylvania voters, with 49% of respondents backing Harris and 43% of the former president, thought more highly of the vice president than they do of Trump. The poll from Monday indicates that Harris also leads in two important counties, Northampton and Erie.
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