Ukraine and Taiwan for headlines, but it could soon prove as dangerous as either. Its nuclear-weapons programme has put its regime in a position to dash for a bomb. Because full-blown negotiations are impossible, the threat could yet draw the Middle East into war—including through American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
That is why it is good that the Biden administration is seeking to lower tensions. Since 2018, when President Donald Trump recklessly left a pact between Iran and a group of world powers, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has faced fewer constraints on its nuclear programme. The original pact lifted some sanctions; and in return, Iran agreed to abide by a set of commitments until at least 2030, including that it would cap its uranium enrichment at 3.67% and accept intrusive inspections.
The goal was to freeze at a year the time needed to enrich a bomb’s worth of uranium. Mr Trump viewed this as “the worst deal ever", yet he also decided against a military strike (the plans for one may be in his stash of classified documents). Iran has responded by accelerating its enrichment activity and continuing to act as a menace in other ways.
It has supplied fleets of drones to Russia. Since September, after a young woman died in the custody of Iran’s morality police, it has crushed anti-regime protests at home. In February international inspectors found particles of uranium enriched to 83.7%, just short of the 90% typically needed for a bomb, leading Israel to warn that it may attack.
The new arrangement being discussed between America and Iran—no one is calling it a deal—would seek to lower the temperature . Iran would cap enrichment at 60% and accept more inspections. America
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