American companies are stocking up to get ahead of Trump’s China tariffs

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. By 9 p.m. on election night, it had become clear to Jason Junod that Donald Trump was returning to the White House.

That night, he contacted his skin-care company’s suppliers in China to order a year’s worth of inventory for about $50,000—as much as he could afford to buy and had room to store. His hope is that the roughly 30,000 body brushes and exfoliating gloves make it to Bare Botanics’ facility in Madison, Wis., before Inauguration Day. He thinks Trump is serious about his campaign promise to impose tariffs of 60% on all Chinese goods.

American businesses are dusting off a playbook they used during Trump’s first term: stocking up on imported goods before tariffs are enacted. They are also considering how to cope with the levies if and when enacted—whether they will be able to raise prices and whether they will need to find alternatives to their Chinese manufacturers. “The biggest consideration is, do we stay in China?" Junod said.

When Trump began his trade war against China in 2018, U.S. businesses scrambled to front-load imports before tariffs were implemented, according to an International Monetary Fund analysis. As a result, the U.S.’s trade deficit with China—how much imports exceed exports—rose in 2018 before falling in 2019.

Already, exports from China surged last month, which some economists think could have been driven at least in part by front-loading amid uncertainty around election results. Outbound shipments from China rose nearly 13% in October from a year earlier, well above consensus expectations and up sharply from 2.4% growth in September. Chinese exports growth should remain strong through the next few months because of front-loading, Wall Street economists