Betting markets forecast the 2024 US Election result: Who has the edge—Harris or Trump?
Donald Trump's standing in prediction markets has declined significantly in the past week, while Kamala Harris has seen a surge in support.
Prediction provider PredictIt now prices Harris's chance of winning at 54 cents, up from 42 cents a week ago. Trump's price has dropped to 51 cents from 60 cents on Tuesday.
Kalshi shows Trump with a 51% chance of winning as of Sunday, down from 64.6% on Tuesday, while Harris's odds have increased to 49%, up from 35.4%.
Interactive Brokers' new IBKR Forecast Trader indicates Trump’s odds dropped to 54% on Sunday from 68% on Tuesday. Harris’s odds rose to 54% on Sunday before settling at 48%, up from 37% on Tuesday. The surge in Harris's odds on IBKR saw significant trading activity, prompting Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy to comment. “Last night, Kamala Harris engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback on IBKR’s ForecastTrader platform,” he said, noting a trading volume of around $40 million.
Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, suggests that Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, where Tony Hinchcliffe made controversial remarks, has negatively impacted Trump’s odds. This event, coupled with Harris’ strong performance in recent polls, has shifted voter sentiment.
Finance
Financial Literacy i.e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code
By — CA Rahul Gupta, CA with 10+ years of experience and Accounting Educator
Web Development
Django & PostgreSQL Mastery: Build Professional Web Applications
By — Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and
