Centre keeps a wary eye on the sky as onion looms large over state polls

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₹25 per kg, before banning its exports in December. The ban was lifted in May 2024 with a minimum export price of $550 per tonne and a 40% export duty. Any crop damage from excessive rains could push prices higher “significantly", the second person added.

Prices had touched a high of ₹100 per kg in 2023 due to reduced production. However, consumer affairs secretary Nidhi Khare assured there will be no price rise even during the unfolding festive season. “The sowing of kharif onions has reached 290,000 hectares, which is 52.63% more than last year's sowing coverage of 190,000 hectares as of 27 August," Khare said.

This year, monsoon rainfall across the country was already 7% above average by the end of August, and September is expected to see rains that are 9% above normal. The weather patterns have sparked concerns of similar disruptions to the onion supply just as it happened last year. D.K.

Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, agreed that some damage from excess rain is expected this year too, but it remains to be assessed whether it will be widespread across India or localized. "It depends. Just because there’s excessive rain in some areas doesn’t necessarily mean that food inflation will go up.

It’s important to properly assess the situation," Joshi said over the phone. With assembly elections approaching, managing food inflation, particularly for politically sensitive items like onions, has become a critical challenge for the central government. However, while onions are the most immediate concern, heavy rains could damage other crops such as potatoes and tomatoes as well.

K.J. Ramesh, former director general of India Meteorological Department, stressed the importance of timing in harvesting onions. "Even with