China’s export boom means Trump tariffs would hit Beijing where it hurts

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. China’s economy is more dependent on exports than it has been for most of the past two decades, leaving it vulnerable to a new broadside on trade from President-elect Donald Trump.

Chinese exports to the rest of the world grew 5.9% last year compared with a year earlier to $3.6 trillion, figures published Monday showed. Those figures mean trade is on track to account for about a fifth of the 5% or so growth China is expected to report this year.

Aside from 2021, when consumers the world over were gorging on Chinese-made home appliances, fitness equipment and computer gear during Covid-19 lockdowns, that would mark trade’s biggest contribution to Chinese economic growth since 2006, when China’s exports were surging in the aftermath of its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. China’s growing reliance on foreign purchases of manufactured goods to power growth reflects its economy’s struggles with a yearslong real-estate crunch and tepid consumer spending.

In response to those challenges, and to meet longer-term ambitions to transform China into a technological superpower, leader Xi Jinping has been funneling cash into the country’s factories. The result has been ballooning industrial capacity, tumbling prices and an export surge in everything from steel and chemicals to cars and machinery.

China’s exports exceeded its imports in 2024 by $992 billion, a record, reflecting not just buoyant exports but also subdued Chinese demand for the rest of the world’s goods and services. Trump on the campaign trail pledged to jack up tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60%, part of a series of aggressive trade moves aimed at reducing the U.S.’s chronic trade deficits and meeting other