Cocoa, coffee reach new highs on fear of aging trees
Cocoa and coffee futures reached new highs on mounting concerns of extreme weather, while aging trees in Africa cocoa crops and Vietnam coffee areas added to concerns.
“Speculators are drawing parallels between cocoa and coffee, which is a bit surprising,” Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera said, adding that trees getting older in Vietnam is one of the reasons coffee production in the country is not expanding.
New York cocoa futures rose to the highest in data going back to the 1960s, extending a rally driven by declining production in top-growers Ivory Coast and Ghana. Gains for most-active contract accelerated after prices broke the $10,000 mark, a level that hasn’t been seen since almost two weeks ago.
Dryness in Vietnam is expected to drive a deficit in robusta markets for the season starting in October, while for cocoa the dry weather and disease spread are causing a massive shortage
Robusta coffee settled at a new high in London on worries that poorer output in top-producer Vietnam will fuel bean shortages. Futures for robusta, the cheaper coffee type used in instant drinks, rose 1.6% to the highest in data going back to 2008.
The coffee market also has been supported as hedge funds exit the cocoa market — where big shortfalls have sent prices soaring — and pile into coffee. As investors cut bets on cocoa, the amount of outstanding contracts declined. Aggregate open interest for cocoa New York futures hit the lowest since 2011, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.
