Could economic indicators give an early warning of a war over Taiwan?

livemint.com:

signs of a potential conflict. The most likely flashpoint is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims and America supports. Were China planning to invade Taiwan, its military preparations would be hard to hide.

But before troops begin to muster, other actions, of an economic and financial nature, might signal China’s intent. The Soviet Union mistook ordinary activities, such as blood drives, for possible indicators of war. When it comes to China, finding signals in the noise is even harder.

The country has spent decades improving its armed forces. It routinely stockpiles food. And it has hardened its economy against potential sanctions.

All of these actions have fed fears of war—yet they do not necessarily mean that one is imminent. The challenge for Western intelligence agencies, then, is to imagine how China might deviate from this wary baseline in the run-up to an actual attack. One area to focus on is commodities, namely energy, food and metals.

China would want to secure adequate supplies of each before launching an invasion. Many of these goods come from abroad and are bought by the state, so trade data are a useful gauge of the government’s intentions. Patterns that would warrant attention include large and continuous increases in supplies, sudden changes in imports or exports, purchases that go against the market and moves that are out of line with historical trends.

No single data point will indicate that a war is coming. But a plausible early-warning system might be formed by pooling observations. Energy is a good place to start.

China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it uses. The substance accounts for only 20% of the country’s energy use, but it would be crucial to any war effort. Military