Don’t expect more than 25 bps Fed rate cut now; big collapse in crude prices unlikely: Arnab Das
Arnab Das, Global Macro Strategist, Invesco, says all the world's big oil consumers are slowing down in a somewhat synchronized fashion, causing some concerns about the demand side of the market. However, a big collapse in the price of oil is unlikely. The big surges and the big collapses in the price of oil tend to come from the supply side rather than the demand-side which in the major economies tends to be a more gradual process than supply shocks.
The US CPI numbers increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus that sets the stage for an expected quarter percent point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming week. Are there any chances for an outsized rate cut given the recessionary fears are back in the US?
Arnab Das: Yes, we have and I have been in the 25 bps camp all along; 50 basis points are possible, but is unlikely at this stage. The market was pricing more like 30 bps before the CPI. Although the headline CPI number is fine, the core number is not as good as hoped, and core PCE will maintain that story. We are looking at a 25 bps cut. The Fed has kind of indicated and it is correct to say that it has shifted the focus of its dual mandate from inflation to jobs and the labour market, but it has to keep one eye on inflation and that points to a 25 bps cut.
The fall in oil probably speaks of a slowdown in demand that people are worried about. Generally, in China and the world as a whole, with the US and the UK now slowing down, maybe Europe is not slowing down as much, and even
