Don’t rule out national insurance U-turn amid Tory cost of living jitters

theguardian.com:

Amid Boris Johnson’s recent travails, one Tory MP recounted how he, like many colleagues, was phoned by an ally of the prime minister seeking to shore up his support. Asked what changes No 10 should consider, the answer was immediate: scrap the planned national insurance rise and cut VAT on energy bills.

“Boris’s people have been ringing up a lot of us to hear what we they think, and as I understand it, every single MP is basically telling them to get a grip with taxes and the cost of living,” the MP said.

The VAT cut is among a series of measures on a long list of options being considered by the Treasury, although no decision is expected imminently, as everyone in government awaits Sue Gray’s report on Downing Street parties.

But amid the public chaos, another behind-the-scenes battle is being fought on the scheduled 1.25 percentage point increase in national insurance contributions, unveiled in September as a way to provide £12bn a year extra to reduce NHS waiting lists and, in the longer term, pay sustainably for social care.

While the move broke a Conservative manifesto pledge to not raise taxes, the rise was sold as necessary given the unprecedented pressures of Covid, and only five Tory MPs rebelled in a Commons vote.

But with inflation above 5%, and Tory MPs aware they have greater leverage with a prime minister battling for his political future, there is increasing speculation that a U-turn could happen.

Both Downing Street and the Treasury still reject the idea that they are considering such a change, with the latter in particular dismissing the mooted idea that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, is now not keen on the plan.

“[Sunak, Sajid Javid, the health secretary] and the PM all stood up at a press conference and