Donald Trump has the edge for now
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The question is simple: Who is going to win in November? The answer is complex, because it derives from a mix of many different trends and campaign efforts that must come together to produce a single result. At this point Donald Trump has an edge, but that edge could easily disappear.
The reason Mr. Trump has a slight edge is straightforward: He dominates on the core issues that people say they care about most. He holds a 12-point lead over Kamala Harris on which candidate would do a better job on immigration, and a 4-point lead on both inflation and crime, according to the October 2024 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll.
Such core domestic issues are usually what determines who gets elected, and Mr. Trump leads in all three of this election cycle’s top concerns. The second reason for Mr.
Trump’s advantage is that voters have more confidence in him on the issues of war and peace. Seventy percent of voters believe he has sufficient experience in foreign affairs, and he leads significantly in polling about which candidate would do a better job on the war in Ukraine, relations with China, and the war between Israel and Hamas. Mr.
Trump also has an edge over Ms. Harris because he has reduced the Democrats’ lead among black and Latino voters, especially among men. He has adopted a successful strategy of finding niche issues in key swing states—no tax on tips in Nevada, fracking in Pennsylvania and saving auto-manufacturing jobs in Michigan.
Latino voters have particularly high levels of concern about the economy, and Mr. Trump has closed the electoral gap from a 25 point Democratic advantage in 2020 to just 12 points averaged from the past two months. But you can’t count Ms.
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