Donald Trump’s blockade of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.WHEN AMERICA and Israel began their war on February 28th, it was widely expected that Iran would choke off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Few would have predicted that, less than two months later, Donald Trump would impose a blockade of his own, targeting traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas. It went into effect on April 13th.

Mr Trump hopes economic strangulation might force Iran to open the strait where bombardment has failed. It is a dangerous gamble that could compound the global energy crisis and lead to fresh escalation.America’s rationale is simple. Iranian threats have drastically reduced tanker traffic through Hormuz.

But Iran has continued to export its own oil, albeit at reduced levels. It has also allowed some ships to pass if they pay a fee; two large Chinese state-owned tankers carrying Iraqi and Saudi oil proceeded through the strait on April 11th, as did a Liberia-flagged tanker. Mr Trump’s message is that if neutral cargo cannot pass unhindered, Iran’s can’t either.

The military aspect of the plan is “absolutely feasible”, says Mark Montgomery, a retired rear-admiral. America can board and seize ships relatively easily; it seized ten tankers linked to Venezuela between December and February. “You don’t have to catch every ship,” he adds.

“Just enough ships to send the message.”The economic and political aspects are trickier. The aim, presumably, is to sever Iran’s economic lifeline and force the regime to make concessions in peace talks, particularly over its nuclear programme. In theory, Iran is vulnerable.