El Niño looks to be fading. What Canadians can expect in the months to come

globalnews.ca:

After bringing a warmer, drier winter to much of Canada, the El Niño weather event that has gripped the Pacific Ocean and subsequently the world may at last be over.

But scientists say its effects could still linger over Canada before the cooler La Niña likely takes effect.

“It’s like a teeter-totter going up and down; El Niño was going to end at some point in time,” University of Toronto Mississauga atmospheric physics professor Kent Moore said.

“Then later, in the summer and into the fall La Niña will start…. The unknown is how extreme it’s going to be.”

El Niño is known for warm, above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, while La Niña tends to occur after, bringing colder effects. But while both events occur in the Pacific Ocean, the changes they cause in the sea can also impact the atmosphere on a wider scale.

With La Niña, for example, greater precipitation and winds may lead to rain storms or even more hurricanes.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says the sea surface has been cooling in the tropical Pacific since December 2023, with what it calls the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — describing the switch between the two phases — to remain neutral until at least July, indicating El Niño is over.

“The change to ENSO neutral conditions means neither El Niño nor La Niña are active,” the BOM said Tuesday.

Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips says it may not completely be a done deal, however.

“It’s on its way out, but there’s a lag,” he said.

Phillips told Global News what can happen is the oceans warm up but then the atmosphere doesn’t respond. A number of factors need to be in play, including a shift in wind direction and change of temperature in the deep water.

But even