Exit Polls Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Seven reasons why predictions for BJP or Congress may go wrong
exit polls, which are expected to forecast the potential composition of the next government. The focus will primarily be on determining whether the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the opposition bloc led by Congress, known as INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), is likely to secure victory.
However, exit polls, often eagerly awaited and scrutinized after the completion of election seasons, are not without their flaws. Despite their seemingly scientific methodology, several factors can contribute to inaccuracies in their predictions.
1. Faulty Basic Premise: Exit polls operate under the assumption that voters will truthfully reveal their choices during personal interviews. However, this premise can be faulty. Some individuals may intentionally deceive pollsters, while others, particularly from marginalized or vulnerable communities, may feel pressured to conceal their true opinions.
Additionally, the setting of exit polls, often conducted just outside voting booths, may influence respondents to provide socially acceptable answers rather than expressing their genuine preferences.
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- Delhi
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