Fearing Russia, the Baltic states improve their defences
ramp up arms production. Baltic leaders have emphasised that even small Russian advances could be existentially threatening to their states. “It cannot be ruled out that within a three to five year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity," warned Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s defence minister, on February 9th.
“That was not Nato’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now." In light of this febrile mood, the Baltic Defence Line is both a military statement and a political one. But Russia’s successful defence has also prompted a wider rethink.
Russian fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine were the most extensive defensive works in Europe since the second world war, according to analysis by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank. They are probably rivalled only by the minefields and obstacles on the inter-Korean border. In November Volodymr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, urged his commanders to accelerate the construction of defences in the east.
Poland, too, is building up fortifications and shelters along its border with Russia and Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin. This throws up a dilemma. NATO armies have long preferred a more elastic defence in depth, in which forces retreat as needed and destroy the enemy on more favourable terrain.
That is incompatible with defending every inch of NATO soil. But with an “operationally static defence", observes Mr Milevski, “it’s much more of an imperative to ensure that the blow, when it comes, is as weak as possible". That puts a much greater emphasis on using heavy firepower to strike deep behind Russian lines to wear down the attacking force and break up its command and logistics.
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