Fiscal alert: Some states have begun to slip off their correction paths

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. A synchronous improvement in the fiscal health of the Centre and states in the aftermath of the covid pandemic appears to have given way to divergence already. Staring at sizeable fiscal deficits, all had embarked on strict regimens to cut the flab from their budgets.

However, recent data indicates many states have slipped on their fiscal fitness journey. The divergence began last fiscal year. The Centre stayed on the fiscal consolidation path after the pandemic-led spike to 9.2% in 2020-21 and achieved a fiscal deficit of 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023-24, compared with a budgeted 5.9%, thanks to buoyant tax revenue, a large dividend from the Reserve Bank of India and restrained revenue expenditure growth.

States too saw their aggregate gross fiscal deficit decline from 4.1% in 2020-21 to 2.8% in 2021-22 and 2022-23, with revenue expenditure normalizing and revenue collection improving. But since then, the financials of several states have weakened. The latest state budgets reveal vast differences in the budget estimates (BE) and revised estimates (RE) of the key fiscal parameters of states in 2023-24.

For instance, the fiscal deficits of nine of the 18 non-special category (NSC) states analysed overshot their budget targets. Of these nine, the revenue of four was below target, while the expenditure of five exceeded the target. Of the remaining nine, five cut their expenditure in the face of lower revenue to contain their fiscal deficits.

That means only four of the 18 states were able to generate revenue that was not less than what they had budgeted to meet their fiscal deficit targets. These were Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Rajasthan. Compared with 2022-23, 15 out