FPI derivatives bets to drive markets after US-Iran talks stall

FPIs, amid a two-week shaky truce between Iran and the US announced last week, fuelled the market's first gain in six weeks through last Friday.A breakthrough in the Islamabad talks could have spurred further closure of bearish bets, while the failure to reach an agreement could result in initiation of fresh shorts, analysts said.Last week, the Nifty recovered almost 8.5% from its 52-week low of 22,182.55 on 2 April through Friday's close of 24,050.6, as oil plunged 13% to $95.2 a barrel following President Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire to resolve the conflict in West Asia.With talks in Islamabad having failed, uncertainty rises again over volatile oil prices, although a collapse in Nifty to the 52-week low is unlikely unless the fighting resumes, per G Chokkalingam, founder of research firm Equinomics. “If the truce still holds we may see a tempered fall rather than an oversized one , followed by a period of consolidation.”While FPIs net sold shares worth ₹18,274.6 crore last week, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net purchased shares worth ₹21,602.32 crore, according data from the National Securities Depository Ltd.However, in addition to the net institutional inflow of ₹3,328 crore, according to depository data, FPIs closed out or covered ₹9,775 crore of cumulative short index futures–Nifty and Bank Nifty–positions last week, which accounted for much of last week's rally."Last week's rally was led by FPI short-covering," said Rohit Srivastava, founder of analytics firm IndiaCharts.