Global news wrap: Monetary policies, emerging market shares, China’s GDP

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The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India. Four key central banks are scheduled to announce their monetary policy decisions in March, with policymakers widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid uneven inflation, mixed growth signals and rising political uncertainty.

Last week, India left the policy repo rate unchanged as growth outlook improved from a potential India-US deal, while inflation is expected to rise above 4% mid-point target by the first quarter (April-June) of FY27. In the US, the Federal Reserve is likely to extend its pause as inflation remains above the 2% target and economic growth continues to outpace its long-term potential, leaving little room for near-term easing.

Leadership uncertainty, including the prospect of Kevin Warsh taking over as Federal Reserve chair later this year and concerns over political interference are also expected to reinforce a cautious stance. The Bank of England, while moving closer to rate cuts, is expected to hold for now as it weighs cooling demand and easing inflation against still-elevated price pressures and a fragile recovery.

In the euro zone, the European Central Bank appears comfortably on hold, with inflation below target but growth proving more resilient than feared and exchange-rate moves largely absorbed into its outlook. However, Japan stands apart with its central bank expected to maintain its tightening bias,