Growth seen at 6.1-6.8% for FY25 on 7-quarter Q2 low
Citing risk to the economic outlook and the likelihood of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in February, they now predict gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.1-6.8% in the year ending March 31, lower than the central bank's forecast of 7.2%. GDP growth was the slowest in seven quarters at 5.4% in July-September, hurt by low consumption and weak investment demand.
CareEdge Ratings lowered its FY25 GDP forecast to 6.5%, from 7%. «Urban consumption is seeing moderation after the sharp spurt, post-Covid,» said Rajani Sinha, its chief economist.
Goldman Sachs had earlier scaled down its forecast for FY25 to 6.4%, from 6.5%.
Kotak Mahindra Bank cut its projection to 6.1%, from 6.7% earlier. The private bank expects GDP to expand 6.2% in the second half of the fiscal year. «Our estimates over the next few quarters are predicated on gradual improvement in a few cyclical factors — pace of government spending normalising, and employment visibility improving in certain sectors such as IT-ITeS, banking and retail,» said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.
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