Here are the Canadian oilpatch winners and losers from volatile oil prices

financialpost.com:

Some Canadian energy companies are better placed to weather the precipitous drop in the price of oil, according to an analysis by Scotiabank Global Equity Research.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark, was trading Friday at US$70.01 a barrel, down from a year-to-date high of US$86.91 in April, compelling the bank’s analysts to revisit break-even points for Canadian oilpatch players.

To sustain capital spending and dividends in 2025, analysts are estimating an average break-even price of US$50 per barrel, giving oilpatch companies a cushion of US$15 per barrel based on WTI at US$65 per barrel. The benchmark closed near US$65 per barrel on Sept. 10, according to Bloomberg.

“Although falling commodity prices are not good, break-evens continue to be robust with many companies able to fund their sustaining capital requirements with WTI at US$40-US$45/bbl and dividends at $45-$50/bbl,” the analysts said in a note on Friday.

They also identified which energy companies are best placed to withstand oil price volatility and those that might feel the heat.

They expect major oilpatch players, notably Suncor Energy Inc., Cenovus Energy Inc. and Imperial Oil Ltd., to be at the top of the pack, “primarily driven by cost-structure wins.”

Suncor is expected to “lead the way” in efficiency gains, the analysts said, as the company works to drive down costs through the use of autonomous trucks and in other areas such as maintenance and logistics.

Cenovus is expected to benefit from an increase in production, “downstream reliability” and a lowering of general and administrative expenses, while Imperial could reap gains from “thermal production growth” and digitalization, they said.

The Scotiabank analysts estimate that