How scared is China of Donald Trump’s return?
American tariffs of over 60% on Chinese imports? “Add even more," rages one online commentator in the mainland. “I’d be curious to see how ordinary Americans would live." Others think Mr Trump would increase the odds of a war. The world will “never be at peace" with him around, reckons another netizen.
“This old madman is too vicious," says a third. “He must be annihilated." It is not just online: the prospect of a Trump victory is the subject of debate among China’s elite, too. They fear his return to the White House would lead to an even hotter trade war, with potentially vast economic costs.
But they also believe his contempt for alliances (witness the latest outburst against NATO) could yield huge propaganda gains and undermine the American-led security system in Asia, freeing China to act as it pleases on Taiwan and more. Some Chinese nationalists are cheering his successes and call him Comrade Chuan Jianguo: Chuan being a common rendering of Mr Trump’s surname, and Jianguo meaning “build the country". It is a way of suggesting that Mr Trump’s excesses make China stronger.
For Xi Jinping, China’s leader, the unpredictable trade-offs that a Trump presidency would involve are especially difficult to weigh, even if the two men’s relationship is reasonable enough after multiple encounters from banquets in Beijing to steak dinners at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trump’s lair in Florida. “I like President Xi a lot," Mr Trump recently told Fox News. “He was a very good friend of mine during my term." On the one hand Mr Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021 saw a profound shift in America’s policy.
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