Hydrogen still in slow-burn phase ahead of take-off

afr.com:

There’s an uncomfortable, hidden truth in all the hype around green hydrogen – the market for it is almost non-existent and is growing at snail’s pace.

Australia’s ambitions to become a green energy exporting powerhouse largely rely on the emergence of multiple sources of demand for the clean-burning fuel and products made from it such as ammonia. Net-zero scenarios for major industrialised nations are likewise.

But the market remains a slow burn, and on the Paris-based International Energy Agency’s calculations, is tracking well behind what is needed in 2030 to put it on track for net-zero emissions by 2050.

Take-up of green hydrogen in heavy transport has lagged expectations, the International Energy Agency says. 

In 2022, just 0.7 per cent of the world’s hydrogen demand of 95 million tonnes a year was for the low-carbon version of the fuel – either made from renewable energy, or from fossil fuels with carbon capture, the IEA says inits latest assessment of the situation.

That means hydrogen production today results in more than 900 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, making it “more of a climate problem than a climate solution” at this stage, the IEA admits. Production and use needs to grow more than 100-fold by 2030 to get in line with the net-zero emissions scenario.

Demand remains concentrated in industry and refining, with less than 0.1 per cent coming from the sort of new applications in heavy industry, transport and power generation that will underpin decarbonisation in these sectors.

It’s the old chicken-and-egg problem. While there are plans around the world for projects that would produce 38 million tonnes of low-emission hydrogen in 2030, only 4 per cent of this production has taken a final investment decision