IEA lifts 2024 oil demand forecast but trims 2025 projections

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The International Energy Agency lifted its forecast for this year’s oil-demand growth but slightly trimmed next year’s estimates, citing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on consumption. The Paris-based organization forecasts global demand to grow by 921,000 barrels a day in 2024 from 862,000 barrels a day previously, largely due to stronger-than-expected gasoil deliveries in OECD countries.

Growth estimates for 2025 were slightly trimmed to 990,000 from 998,000 barrels a day. This marks a sharp deceleration from the roughly 2 million barrels-a-day growth seen last year, now that the post-pandemic surge in demand has subsided and the rapid rollout of clean-energy transport technologies is tempering oil consumption growth. “China’s marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand, with its growth this year expected to average just a tenth of the 1.4 million barrels a day increase in 2023," the IEA said.

Chinese demand fell by 70,000 barrels a day on year in September—the sixth straight monthly contraction this year. The agency said it expects the country to register demand growth of 140,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter and 190,000 barrels a day in 2025, below previous estimates of 220,000-barrels-a-day growth. Total global demand is still expected to average 102.8 million this year and 103.8 million barrels a day the next.