Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Equity Research, Ventura Securities, “says index stocks have just not performed. It has been a screeching rally led by the smallcap and the midcap stocks. Currently, the smallcap stocks still look very cheap. They are at 13 times CY25 earnings. So, although there are a number of indicators which point to the move reaching slightly uncomfortable levels, I still believe that if you have a good selection of stocks, smallcap is the market to play in the current scenario.”
Where do you think India is going to draw cues from? Will it be a global event, which is going to dictate our markets or do you think it is going to be something internal like inflation?
There are a couple of things that I would like to draw your attention to.
One is that the US Treasury's 10-year bonds have broken all levels. So they are looking very bearish, number one. Number two, if you talk of China, there is absolute panic in their economy.
They have stopped giving unemployment data. That is a sign of concern. And if we look at the Chinese debt, which is about $52 trillion, the bulk of it has been funded by Europe.
So I do not think the cues are going to come from the international markets on the positive side. If at all, they are going to be negative.
We have seen RBI first suck out CRR. The next would be a token rate hike and that is the scenario that I am looking at.
If you break the bottom of 19,300, the market could fall quite a bit because in the last few weeks, index stocks have just not performed. It has been a screeching rally led by the smallcap and the midcap stocks. Currently, the smallcap stocks still look very cheap.
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