India Q2 GDP: Indian economy poised for strong growth in FY24? Here's what top economists say
GDP print came above expectations on Thursday driven by robust growth in the manufacturing, mining and construction sectors. However, growth in the agriculture segment cooled due to an erratic monsoon. India's Q2 GDP grew 7.6 per cent, significantly exceeding the expectations.
A Mint poll of 18 economists had estimated the gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be about 6.8 per cent in the quarter. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the Indian economy expanded by 7.8 per cent. Top economists shared their views on India's Q2 GDP number and the road ahead.
Take a look: Given the exceptional growth print in Q2FY24 and the average 7.7 per cent YoY growth in the first half of the current financial year (H1FY24), there is a rationale for a review of our 6 per cent growth forecast for the full year. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that the base factor will not be in action in the second half of the year and there are material risks of lower agricultural output and weaker rural consumption. In the coming MPC meeting, we also expect RBI to take note of the stronger growth momentum in the current year and the likelihood of a fresh buildup of inflationary pressures particularly if food inflation gets affected by the El Nino weather events.
However, we believe any rate hike is unlikely although the system liquidity may be kept relatively tight. Any rate cut decision appears unlikely over the next six months. Also Read: India’s Q2 GDP growth story, in 5 charts Looking ahead, we project GDP growth to moderate significantly in the second half of the current financial year (H2FY24), with the continuing headwinds such as the normalising base, weak outlook for agri output and rural demand, tepid global growth, narrowing
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