India’s GDP growth likely slowed to a six-quarter low in Q2: Mint poll

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. India's economic growth likely slowed to 6.5% in the September quarter, which would be its slowest pace in six quarters, according to the median estimate of 25 economists in a Mint poll. This marks a decline from 6.7% in the preceding quarter.

The expectations of a slowdown are due to uneven performance across sectors, with a decline in private consumption growth offsetting the positive effects of government spending and a rural recovery. Gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of FY25 is scheduled to be released on 29 November. Also read | Tale of two GDP estimates: S&P cuts, Finmin steadfast Economists in the poll forecast India's GDP growth would range between 6.20% and 6.85%, with only two of them expecting growth in the September quarter to outpace that of the June quarter.

If the estimates prove correct, GDP growth will fall short of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projection of 7% in Q2, which was revised down from 7.2% at the central bank’s October meeting. Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA Ltd, said in a report dated 20 November that growth faced multiple headwinds in Q2 as heavy rainfall disrupted mining activity, electricity demand and retail footfalls. Merchandise exports contracted and companies in several sectors saw their margins weaken.

These challenges offset positives such as the pick-up in capex after the parliamentary elections and a healthy expansion in the sowing of major kharif crops. Also read: India Inc's Q2 has been tepid. Is a recovery in sight? With 6.5% growth in Q2, the average GDP growth in the first half of the financial year would be 6.6%.