ICRA said: "India is a large consumer accounting for about 4-5% of the global consumption. Accordingly, India along with China and other large economies would impact overall demand and demand growth and Opec would be watching out for demand growth of the country." "However even considering global peak oil demand there is still a long way to go, so capacity and production increases by Opec are being done.
Additionally countries like Saudi Arabia are also looking at oil-to-chemicals projects to ensure crude oil demand." India imports about 85% of its energy imports. In FY23, total oil and petroleum product imports stood at 277.3 million tonnes and so far this fiscal (April-January), the imports stand at 256.4 million tonnes.
Noting that Opec estimates India's oil demand to more than double by 2045, Sourav Mitra, senior practice leader and director - consulting, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, said that a large portion of India's import is currently dependent on Opec. "As such, India's growth trajectory and late oil demand peak does carry the potential to incentivize production for these suppliers.
Indian government, however, has constantly acknowledged the sovereignty of oil-producing nations to control pumping and exports, and have indicated diversifying its crude sources," Mitra said. “These could potentially include nations like Guyana, Suriname and Namibia—all of which will be provided a boost to enhance production to supply to a positive-growth Indian market."
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