Is the worst over with respect to inflation and other macro headwinds? ED Yardeni answers
«Well, I have been arguing that the economy is actually in a recession. I have been making that argument since last year. But the idea is that it is in a rolling recession.
It is not an economy-wide recession,» says ED Yardeni, Yardeni Research.Let us start with the latest economic data which has come in and which has created a bit of a ruffle across the world, the jobs data, very strong jobs data coming in. What is your own read through from this data point this time around?Yes, I think that is exactly right. The good news is the labour market is still creating lots of jobs.
It is obviously great for American workers. The wage numbers, however, were still a bit on the hot side, but let us not forget that the wage inflation numbers have come down a lot since last summer and so at 4.4% which is a year over year comparisons, that was about the same as the month before. But the good news there is wages are actually rising prices, that is a nice real purchasing power for the consumer.
It is a concern, of course, with regards to what the Fed's going to do. The Fed would like to see a wage inflation closer to 3%, but I think it is heading in that direction. I do not think we are going to need a recession to bring inflation down.You have a very different view from your peers in terms of you are more optimistic for your US economy. You are expecting a soft landing over there. Could you just share us your thoughts in terms of this?Well, I have been arguing that the economy is actually in a recession.
I have been making that argument since last year. But the idea is that it is in a rolling recession. It is not an economy-wide recession.
Read more on economictimes.indiatimes.com
