JPMorgan sees 'massive' demand for loonie hedges amid tariff risks
Investors are piling into hedges against a weaker Canadian dollar at a historic pace, seeking shelter from the impact of possible U.S. tariffs, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The threat of a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports as soon as next month — made by U.S. President Donald Trump after his inauguration this week — has Wall Street currency-watchers forecasting record lows for the so-called loonie, sending companies and investors scrambling for protection.
That’s driven options trading volume in the U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar pair toward all-time highs, while loonie futures volume reached a record on Tuesday, according to JPMorgan strategists, citing the firm’s proprietary data as well as Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation and Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures.
The U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar pair “has dominated FX options trading over the last week as investors have sought record levels of protection from tariffs,” JPMorgan’s Patrick Locke, Kunj Padh, and Ladislav Jankovic wrote Friday. The loonie “has screened short on our metrics for a long time — but that did not preclude a massive bid for USD/CAD calls in recent sessions as Canada remains in the cross-hairs of U.S. trade policy.”
The demand for protection against a weaker loonie has pushed risk reversals — a measure of the cost to hedge in the options market via calls versus put structures — to levels last seen more than two years ago. The three-month sentiment gauge shows traders are near the most bearish on the Canadian currency since November 2022.
The JPMorgan strategists said traders’ short position against the loonie in the derivatives market — which now totals some US$11.7 billion among speculative traders, the most among the G-10
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