Laurence Balanco on 3 big trades for 2025 with shelf life of 8-12 months

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Laurence Balanco, CLSA, says for him, the three big trades for 2025, which could have a shelf life of 8 to 12 months are Bitcoin, the fintech ETF where we can see a breakout trend and the travel tech ETF, which has also recently broken out. These are major breakouts from basing patterns that have developed over the past two-and-a-half years.

How much more for the dollar before it peaks out? I understand that money is moving into dollars right now, but nothing lasts permanently. At 106, 110, 115, where will the dollar find its long-term peak?
Laurence Balanco: Yes, it is an important level right now, 106 to 107. It has basically been the top end of the trading range that we have had since the late 2022 lows and if I look at the sentiment now for the dollar index, it is sitting at 83% bulls, that is towards the extended level where we have typically seen the upside momentum stall out at. So, this is a key resistance zone that has capped the upside over the past 18 months. We would look for some hesitation here at least.

But running through the new administration, there are headline risks where some of the appointments could get you a break above that 107, and that is what we are watching quite closely. Obviously, the negative for emerging markets is a stronger dollar. For all emerging market investors, including fund managing investing in India, a break above 107 would be a further drag on the emerging market investment case. We are looking for it to stall out here with sentiment where it is, but obviously cognizant