Laurentian Bank shares dive as Scotiabank, TD drop out of pool of buyers

financialpost.com:

Laurentian Bank of Canada shares tumbled as much as nine per cent on a report that Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank dropped out of the running to acquire the Montreal-based lender.

The decline reverses some of the gains Laurentian made earlier in the month when it announced it was conducting a strategic review with the potential for a sale. The shares surged as much as 44 per cent the next day, the most since 1989.

Barclays Bank PLC analyst John Aiken said the report in the Globe and Mail means the probability of a sale has fallen to less than 50 per cent. At the very least, it reduces the odds of a bidding war for the bank, he said.

Until Laurentian management “announces the results of the strategic review and some clarity is regained, we believe the stock could see a slow grind downward over the near term,” Aiken said in a July 28 note to investors. Laurentian was down 7.5 per cent to $40.40 at 1:09 p.m. in Toronto.

Scotiabank, with its stated desire to expand in Quebec, and Toronto-Dominion, with its large capital buffer after the First Horizon Corp. deal fell through, were two of the strongest suitors to win over Laurentian, Aiken added.

Scotiabank made its final decision to drop out on Wednesday, the Globe said, creating uncertainty leading up to the deadline for initial bids at the end of July.

Bank analysts were quick to begin speculating on potential buyers when Laurentian Bank put itself up for sale. While some pointed to Scotiabank and TD as likely choices, Veritas Investment Research analyst Nigel D’Souza flagged National Bank of Canada as his top candidate to acquire the bank and boost its share in its home market. It’s the largest bank to be based in Montreal.