Lok Sabha Elections 2024: How exact are the opinion polls? It's been hit-and-miss affair so far

livemint.com:

CSDS earlier released a detailed analysis of how accurate were the opinion polls during the Lok Sabha Elections from 1998 to 2009. A political party needs to win 272 seats of the total 543 seats to gain a majority in the Lok Sabha in India. The report revealed that the pre-election opinion polls in the 1998 Lok Sabha Elections were "almost accurate", while the prediction in the 1999 elections "slightly overestimated" the performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The BJP first rose to power at the Centre in 1996. The party retained the power in the 1998 and 1999 general elections. ALSO READ: NDA may see 3% jump in Lok Sabha seats, INDIA 35%, shows poll of opinion polls In the 2004 Lok Sabha poll, the actual results were a "shocker" for many poll pundits.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was "completely underestimated" by the opinion polls/exit polls conducted during the various phases of the elections. As per the CSDS report, all the opinion polls in 2004 had predicted that the NDA would be able to retain power at the Centre. However, it was the Congress that ousted the BJP to form the national government again.

ALSO READ: Which states pose a challenge for BJP in Lok Sabha elections 2024? Axis My India MD Pradeep Gupta says... Five years later, the opinion polls during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections once again failed to predict the victory of the Congress-led UPA. Back then, the "predictions had failed to see the Congress upsurge".