Mint Explainer: The good and the bad of late monsoon withdrawal for agriculture

livemint.com:

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the southwest monsoon current has started withdrawing from parts of Rajasthan, indicating the beginning of the end of its four-month journey. The normal withdrawal date is 17 September. The full withdrawal typically takes about a month.

Mint explains why the withdrawal has been delayed this year and what it means for India's agriculture sector. The start of monsoon withdrawal has been delayed because of the formation of a low-pressure area in Rajasthan and the neighbourhood which turned into a cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea. The typical monsoon withdrawal date of 17 September was revised in 2020, based on recent data.

Prior to that, based on data from 1901-1940, the date was 1 September. The trend of delayed withdrawal has been attributed to natural variability or climate change. Meteorologists say that changes in weather or climate patterns impact onset, progress and withdrawal of monsoon.

For decades, monsoon withdrawal from southwest Rajasthan has been delayed resulting in more rains in northwest India. Earlier, monsoon was supposed to cover the entire country by 15 July. Now the revised date is 8 July.

This means the arrival of the southwest monsoon in northwest India is early and withdrawal is late, making for more rainy days in northwest India. According to the met department, any delay in the the retreat of the monsoon current means a longer rainy season, which in turn impacts crop production, especially in northwest India. Higher rainfall in September will not help with kharif activities, and excessive precipitation may cause damage to standing crops in the flowering or vegetative stage.